Monday Briefing | October 31

Stories to Follow:

Thailand: What Happens Next?
Following death of King Bhumibol Adulyadej earlier this month, former Australian Ambassador to Thailand John McCarthy commented that, “Thailand really is the big question mark for the next five years in Southeast Asia.”  Political uncertainty in the country is fueled by a hardline military junta looking to secure its position, potentially delayed elections, and the unsettled nature of the royal succession of Prince Vajiralongkorn.  Strict lèse-majesté laws make it difficult for Thais to fully discuss the relationship between the monarchy and the junta, while economic difficulties linked to the king’s passing may exacerbate an already tenuous situation.

African Nations Leaving the ICC
This week Gambia, Burundi, and South Africa all announced that they would withdraw from the International Criminal Court.  The announcements are predicated on belief that the court holds a bias against African nations.  This could signal a wave of even more African nations leaving the ICC, further threatening the court’s legitimacy, already seen to be undermined the lack of major signatories like China, the United States, and Russia.

Duterte’s “Separation”
Outspoken Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has added further stress to U.S.-Philippine relations, stating that he wants a “separation.”  Removal of American troops from the Philippines and closer Chinese-Philippine ties would run contrary to the increased U.S. role in the region that is central to President Obama’s “Pivot to Asia.”  U.S. tensions with Duterte’s regime have included criticism of the country’s bloody anti-drug campaign.

 Happening this Week:

Election Risk Analysis
Wednesday, November 2^nd 6:00-8:00pm | Silver Center, Room 120
Dr. Tim Oliver (Dahrendorf Fellow at LSE IDEAS), NYU Professor John Fousek, and NYU Professor James Nolt will explore relevant issues at play during this unusual election, and how they might plausibly play out under different administrations.  Topics will include the fate of the “Pivot to Asia,” Russian-Chinese-U.S. relations, the Middle East, and nuclear weapons.  RSVP here.

NYU Urban Seminar: Thinking Inside Out: How Cities Can Help Solve Global Problems
Wednesday, November 2^nd 12:30pm-2:00pm | The Puck Building 295 Lafayette Street New York, NY
New School Professor Michael Cohen will discuss the growing economic and demographic importance of urban areas in order to reframe the global debate and agenda.  RSVP here.

Being the Other: The Muslim in India
Wednesday November 2^nd 6:30pm-8:00pm | The Asia Society, 725 Park Avenue New York, NY
Senior Indian journalist, television commentator and interviewer Saeed Navqi will be in discussion with South Asia Institute, Columbia University Research Scholar Philip K. Oldenburg regarding his new book on the divisions between Muslims and Hindus in India during the modern era.  Student tickets available here.

In Your Free Time:

Happy Halloween!  Get in the Halloween mood by learning about (or checking out in person) some of New York’s most haunted places, including NYU’s famous neighbor Washington Square Park.  A full list can be found here.

What’s more international than soccer?  Take a well-earned break from midterms next Sunday as both New York soccer teams wrap up the second leg of their playoff series at home against teams from north of the border.  The New York Red Bulls will be playing at Red Bull Arena in Harrison, NJ against the Montréal Impact, while New York City FC will be playing against Toronto FC at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx.  Kickoff times TBA this week.

Follow election and polling updates (and learn more about polling models themselves!) during the last week of the campaign at FiveThirtyEight, statistician Nate Silver’s polling analysis blog.

This Monday Briefing was brought to you by Andrew Keough.