Adapting to Change: Norway’s Expanding Role in NATO’s Future
As Europe becomes more dangerous, Norway’s evolving role in NATO comes at a crucial time, marked by rapid changes in its security landscape that require significant adaptation. With Sweden and Finland joining the alliance, a New Nordic bloc is taking shape, pushing Norway to use this opportunity to secure the northern flank and refine its military strategy for the future.
Jens Stoltenberg shakes hands with the new NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, at a meeting of the North Atlantic Council, at the Alliance headquarters in Brussels, Belgium October 1, 2024. REUTERS/Yves Herman
With its strategic Northern geography, Norway has been essential for monitoring Russian activities and ensuring NATO’s operability in the High North. For decades, Norway’s positioning has allowed it to be NATO’s eyes and ears in the Northern Flank, maintaining stability and deterring aggression. However, as the world becomes more dangerous, Norway finds its role within NATO evolving beyond its Cold War imperatives, demanding greater adaption and more proactive measures than ever before.
Norway’s Historical Role in NATO
From NATO’s conception in 1949 to the Cold War, Norway served as a frontline state in NATO’s defense strategy, keeping its focus localized on deterring Soviet aggression in the Arctic and North Atlantic. Upon joining NATO as a founding member, Norway was the only member state to share a border with the Soviet Union. Despite this proximity, Norway carefully balanced its defense commitments with a desire to avoid directly provoking the Soviet Union, who Norwegians saw as one of their key liberators during World War 2. This approach, known as the Norwegian base policy (basepolitikk in Norwegian), was Norway’s way of navigating a complex relationship –prohibiting foreign military bases and the permanent stationing of foreign troops on Norwegian soil during peacetime. While maintaining this balance, Norway provided a set of useful functions for NATO –frequently hosting cold-weather military exercises, providing technical expertise, and monitoring areas of interest.
But after the fall of the Soviet Union, Norway has been juggling two conflicting tasks: deterring Russia and developing forces to counter potential Russian aggression, while also maintaining bilateral relations with mutually beneficial trade with Russia. Support for this persisted in Norway under the enduring belief that free trade was a boon for Europe, shared by much of Europe, that largely set security risks aside. This is something the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 didn’t change, which was met with a measured international response. But the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and Russia’s political weaponization of trade was a shock, pushing Norway away from its Cold War imperatives, uniting the European community, and bringing together NATO like never before, allowing Norway’s role to become more proactive and to expand within NATO.
Norway’s LTP & Defense Spending
Looking to propel its defense posture, the Norwegian government released a Long-Term Defense Plan (LTP) in response to its changing security environment. The LTP, released in 2016, aims to increase Norway’s defense spending by 1,624 billion Norwegian Kroner (NOK) by 2036 and presents a forward-looking strategic vision for modernizing the Norwegian Armed Forces and strengthening Norway’s military position. While Norway has historically fallen below the two percent NATO spending guideline, it has now exceeded it, with the Norwegian government proposing a historic 21 percent increase in defense spending for 2025. This plan reflects Norway’s recognition of the evolving nature of warfare and its commitment to a more proactive defense strategy.
Through the LTP, Norway is trying to balance its traditional priorities with emerging technological developments. While Norway already has a sophisticated air force, which includes F-35 jets, the LTP prioritizes investments in maritime and air defense systems (including new submarines and anti-submarine warfare capabilities) to protect its critical sea lanes. Norway is also enhancing its intelligence capabilities by introducing new technology, surveillance tools, and air-defense systems—for example, through space-based assets and unmanned systems, which will enable better monitoring of remote areas and reduce reliance on foreign intelligence resources. Additionally, the LTP emphasizes the importance of contextualizing this vision within its NATO cooperative framework, especially in supporting Sweden and Finland as they integrate into the alliance.
A New Nordic-NATO Group
With Sweden and Finland recently joining NATO, a new Nordic group is emerging within the alliance. While NATO has expressed a desire against forming blocs because of their exclusionary nature, this is likely to become one of the most cohesive and integrated groupings within NATO. This development fundamentally alters NATO’s northern geography, increasing the northern border with Russia from 200 kilometers to 1,340 kilometers. Norway now has the responsibility to support Finland along the front lines to secure its border with Russia, emphasizing the need to overcome barriers to Nordic integration and effective interoperability. As a result, Norway faces new expectations in this evolving cooperative framework, where —for example—Norway will be crucial for logistics and Sweden key for troop transport to the front lines.
However, Nordic military cooperation isn’t young. In 2009, the Nordic countries signed the Nordic Defense Cooperation (NORDEFCO), a cooperation structure that aims to bolster the national defense of the Nordic countries. Under this agreement, Nordic countries already consider themselves a singular area of operations. Nevertheless, with Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Norway may now cooperate with them in a NATO context –sharing NATO war plans, jointly using military facilities, and gaining new flexibility in deploying NATO troops. In a wartime scenario, the Nordic countries will aim for improved infrastructure and the ability to function as a unit to sustain prolonged conflicts. Norway will draw lessons from the protracted Russo-Ukrainian war and will start looking at costly endeavors on how to improve its infrastructure linkages with Finland, such as developing a transport corridor (especially considering its rough terrain), to help transport goods and military services.
The Northern Flank
Norway has a key role in monitoring NATO’s Northern Flank, the gap between Greenland, Iceland, and the UK (GIUK) and between Norway’s north cape and Svalbard. These areas are strategically crucial, as they prevent Russia from projecting its power into the North Atlantic. In a Russian wartime scenario with NATO, Russia would likely aim to intercept the flow of forces and supplies coming from North America. As the alliance strengthens, Norway looks to play a more active role in the Baltic Sea and is evolving beyond surveillance, moving from a frontline actor to a keystone actor in the flank where Norway is now expected to adopt a more proactive, militarized stance. Norway’s expertise in navigating this challenging terrain and its readiness to lead the alliance/NATO in securing the Northern Flank solidifies its status as a key player in NATO’s evolving defense architecture.
Beyond this, the Arctic itself is undergoing rapid transformation, prompting increased Norwegian efforts to address the region’s evolving challenges. With ice melting, new navigation routes are opening, revealing potentially untapped natural resources, particularly oil and gas, which are of considerable value to Norway. This has drawn interest from Russia, which has strengthened its Arctic Command, revitalized its deep-water ports, and upgraded its northern airfields. This has also drawn interest from China, which seeks to deepen joint efforts with Russia, investing nearly 100 billion US dollars in the region and declaring itself a “near-Arctic state.” It’s clear that for NATO, the Arctic represents both a challenge and an opportunity. For Norway, the region’s significance is amplified by its role as a key energy exporter to its NATO allies, who rely on Norway’s resources. Control of arctic resources means not only enhancing NATO’s ability to protect vital maritime routes, but also safeguarding the economic interests of NATO members.
A Re-Imagined Norway
Norway’s role in NATO has evolved from a primarily regional defender during the Cold War to an active participant in global security and now a key player in addressing NATO challenges. As it embraces the LTP, Norway positions itself as a pivotal player on NATO’s Northern Flank, responding to changing security threats in the region. With Sweden and Finland integrating into NATO, Norway’s leadership within a unified Nordic group will be vital in shaping the alliance’s future strategy. In this uncertain era, Norway’s contributions will not only secure its borders, but will also strengthen NATO’s collective defense framework for decades to come.
Editors
Cameron Roberts, Managing Editor
Nicole Monette, Copy Editor
David Christopher Tahara is a graduate student in international relations at NYU, with a keen interest in populism, NATO, and business. He completed his undergraduate studies in Norway and has lived and studied in Norway, Singapore, Brazil and the US, cultivating a deep appreciation for cultures and different ways of life. As the former President of UN Students Norway, David gained valuable experience addressing global issues and developed an interest in Norway’s role in international diplomacy, which he hopes to build upon in his future career. In his free time, David enjoys watching movies, doing martial arts, and playing chess.
